A Note From Rives:

I hope you are all doing well and managing to stay healthy both physically and mentally during these trying times. We are grateful as a team to have managed to maintain our health in both areas and have had a strong year business wise as well. Every day seems to bring new information so finding solid footing in business recommendations has been challenging. Part of the conversation about real estate is often "typically we see…." or "usually this time of year….". This year has been and will continue to be anything but typical or usual.

As if the Pandemic weren't enough, we are also facing significant unrest due to racial inequality, tremendous economic uncertainty, and the fact that it's an election year. All of these contribute to a collective anxiety that is likely to remain for some time.  How do I handle that personally? I go for a hike along the Rivanna Trail, go mountain biking at Preddy Creek, and play music. I also try to offer everyone, whether it be at work, picking up take out dinner, or simply at the gas station pump, a few words that might make their day a little better. We are all in this together.

2020 started off full of expectation for a strong year despite a continuing lack of inventory. Indeed, the pace of sales through mid-March was running well ahead of 2019, and then everything changed. As you would expect, the market came to an abrupt halt as consumers stayed home and everyone tried to understand what protocols to follow to keep everyone safe. Many sellers chose to take their homes off the market and many others decided to delay selling or moving. But the slowdown that began in March, which was substantial, had reversed course by June. While still below 2019 in total sales through June 30th, the month of June was stronger than June of 2019. Preliminary numbers for July show a slight lag in closings but an increase in pending sales over 2019. Unfortunately, the inventory of available homes remains well below what is needed to meet demand.

So then what are my thoughts for the balance of 2020 and beyond? First, I do not expect to see mainstream residential housing prices come down. There is simply too much demand and not enough supply. Second, while the market overall in 2020 may trail 2019, it should be a solid year with steadier activity through the second half of the year than we normally see. Third, the spring of 2021 is likely to be quite robust as (hopefully) we see the end of the Pandemic and many rushing to take advantage of exceptionally low rates. Low inventory will continue to be a significant challenge for market growth for some time.

Will my predictions be correct? We shall see, but if you would like to talk further (about real estate or just personally) we would be delighted to hear from you. We are but a phone call, text, or email away.